國立中山大學108學年度第1學期高等判斷與決策分析（一）課程大綱

國立中山大學 108學年度第1學期課程教學大綱

National Sun Yat-sen University 108Academic year1st Semester Course syllabus

中文名稱
Course name(Chinese)

高等判斷與決策分析（一）

課號
Course Code

PAM725

英文名稱
Course name(English)

ADVANCED JUDGMENT-DECISION ANALYSIS(I)

課程類別
Type of the course

講授類

必選修
Required/Selected

必修

系所
Dept./faculty

公共事務管理研究所博士班

授課教師
Instructor

汪明生

學分
Credit

因應嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(武漢肺炎)，倘若後續需實施遠距授課，授課方式調整如下：

尚未建立傳染性肺炎(武漢肺炎)授課方式調整

因應嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(武漢肺炎)，倘若後續需實施遠距授課，評分方式調整如下：

尚未建立傳染性肺炎(武漢肺炎)課程評分方式﹝評分標準及比例﹞

課程大綱 Course syllabus

本課程教學大綱已提供完整英文資訊（本選項僅供統計使用，未提供完整英文資訊者，得免勾記）【Provide information of course syllabus in English.(This is for statistical use only. For those who do not provide information of course syllabus in English, do not check this field.)】

1. 公共事務管理架構 Framework of Public affairs management
2. 決策與判斷分析領域 Decision and judgment analysis
(1)決策樹 Decision tree
(2)Lens Model Lens Model
(3)決策與判斷層級分析 Hierarchical analysis of decision and judgment
(4)決策分析發展起源及發展脈絡 The origin and development of decision analysis
(5)判斷分析發展起源及發展脈絡 The origin and development of judgment analysis
(6)決策與判斷分析整合概念 Integration concept of decision making and judgment analysis
閱讀文獻 Documents：
3. 決策理論 Decision Theory
(1)簡單多屬性評分法（SMART）Simple Multi-Attribution Rating Technique
(2)簡捷與偏誤理論 Heuristics and Biases Theory
(3)展望理論 Prospect Theory
4. 判斷理論 Judgment Theory
(1) SJT Social Judgment Theory
(2) 認知衝突派典（CCP）Cognitive Conflict Paradigm
(3) 認知續線理論(CCT) Cognitive Continuum Theory
(4) 判斷分析的研究設計 Research design of judgment analysis
(5) Policy PC Policy PC
5.資訊整合理論（IIT）Information Integration Theory
6.權重衡量方法的比較 Comparison of swing weight methods
7.雙記憶假說 two-memory hypothesis

課程目標 Objectives

本課程經由「理論探討」、「應用案例介紹」、文獻導讀等，培養學生釐清問題的能力，並將理論應用於探討公共事務的議題
This course develops students' ability to clarify problems through "disciplinary discussion", "application case introduction", and literature introduction, and applies the theory to the topic of public affairs.

授課方式 Teaching methods

講授、研討
Lecture, discussion, and presentation.

評分方式﹝評分標準及比例﹞Evaluation (Criteria and ratio)等第制單科成績對照表 letter grading reference

1.期末簡報與書面報告 Final report and written report：40%
2.文獻註解整理 Document annotation：30%
3.課堂出席與課堂討論 Class attendance and class discussion：30%

參考書/教科書/閱讀文獻 Reference book/ textbook/ documents
〔請遵守智慧財產權觀念，不可非法影印。教師所提供之教材供學生本人自修學習使用,不得散播及做為商業用途〕
No copies for intellectual property rights. Textbooks provided by the instructor used only for self-study, can not broadcast or commercial use

1.汪明生與陳碧珍，公共事務管理與決策判斷講義。
Wang Ming-sheng and Chen Biz-hen, public affairs management and decision-making judgments.
2.陳碧珍（2001），「決策與判斷分析」領域簡介，公共事務評論，第2卷第1期，頁171-182。
Chen Biz-hen(2001), Introduction to the field of "decision and judgment analysis", Journal of Public Affairs Review, Vol.2, No.1, pp. 171-182.
3.Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment. Organization Behavior and Human Performance, 6, 649-744.
4.Goldstein, W. M., & Hogarth, R. M. (1997). Judgment and decision research: some historical context. Research on judgment and decision making: Currents, connections, and controversies. Cambridge Uni. Press.(Chapter 1)
5.Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Science, 185, 1124-1131.
6.Hastie, R. & Dawes R. M. (2001), Rational choice in an uncertain world: The psychology of judgment and decision making. (Chapter 13)
7.von Winterfeldt D. & Edwards W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge, New York. (Chapter 7)
8.Edwards, Ward (1994), SMARTS and SMATERER: Improves Simple Methods to Multiattribute Utility Measurement, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 60, 306-325.
9.Brehmer, Berndt (1988), The Development of Social Judgment Theory, in B. Brehmer & C. R. B. Joyce (Eds.), Human Judgment: The SJT View, New York: North-Holland.
10.Cooksey, Ray W. (1996), Judgment Analysis: Theory, Methods, and Applications, San Diego: Academic Press. (Chapter1)
11.林錦郎 (2001)，社會判斷理論與認知衝突典範，公共事務評論，第2卷第1期，頁209-227。
Lin Jin-lang (2001), A model of social judgment theory and cognitive conflict, Journal of Public Affairs Review, Vol.2, No.1, pp. 209-227.
12.Hammond, K. R., Hamm, R. M. Grassia, J., & Pearson, T. (1987), Direct Comparison of the Efficacy of Intuitive and Analytical Cognition in Expert Judgment, IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. SMC-17, No.5, September / October, pp.753-770.
13.Brehmer, A. & Brehmer, B. (1996), What have We Learned about Human Judgment from Thirty Years of Policy Capturing?, in B. Brehmer & C. R. B. Joyce(Eds.), Human Judgment: The SJT View, New York: North-Holland.
14.Anderson, N. H. (1996), Cognitive Algebra, in A Functional Theory of Cognition, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
15.Wang, M. S. and J. S. Yang (1998), "A Multi-criteria Experimental Comparison of three Multiple Attributes Weight Measurement Methods" Journal of Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis, 7, 340-350, Wiley.
16.Anderson, N. H. (1991), Contributions to Information Integration Theory Volume I: Cognition, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.(Ch. 1)

彈性暨自主學習規劃 Alternative learning periods

本門課程是否有規劃實施學生彈性或自主學習內容（每1學分2小時）

Is any alternative learning periods planned for this course (with each credit corresponding to two hours of activity)?

否：教師需於「每週課程內容及預計進度」填寫18週課程進度（每1學分18小時之正課內容）。
No：The instructor will include an 18-week course plan in the weekly scheduled progress (each credit corresponds to 18 hours of instruction)

是：教師需於「每週課程內容及預計進度」填寫16週課程內容（每1學分16小時之正課內容），並於下列欄位填寫每1學分2小時學生彈性或自主學習內容。
Yes：The instructor will include a 16-week course plan in the weekly scheduled progress (each credit corresponds to 16 hours of instruction);the details of the planned alternative learning periods are provided below (each credit corresponds to two hours of activity).

學生彈性或自主學習活動 Alternative learning periods	勾選或填寫規劃內容 Place a check in the appropriate box or provide details	時數 Number of hours
學生分組實作及討論 Group work and discussion
參與課程相關作業、作品、實驗 Participation in course-related assignments, work, or experiments
參與校內外活動（研習營、工作坊、參訪）或競賽 Participation in on- or off-campus activities (e.g., seminars, workshops, and visits) or competitions
課外閱讀 Extracurricular reading
線上數位教材學習 Learning with online digital learning materials
其他（請填寫規劃內容） Other (please provide details)

每週課程內容及預計進度 Weekly scheduled progress

週次	日期	授課內容及主題
Week	Date	Content and topic
1	2019/09/09~2019/09/15	公共事務管理架構 Framework of Public affairs management
2	2019/09/16~2019/09/22	判斷與決策分析理論介紹一 Theoretical introduction of judgment and decision analysis I
3	2019/09/23~2019/09/29	判斷與決策分析理論介紹二 Theoretical introduction of judgment and decision analysis II
4	2019/09/30~2019/10/06	判斷與決策分析層級架構 Hierarchical structure for judgment and decision analysis
5	2019/10/07~2019/10/13	決策理論─SMART Decision Theory：Simple Multi-Attribution Rating Technique
6	2019/10/14~2019/10/20	決策理論─簡捷與偏誤理論 Decision Theory：Heuristics and Biases Theory
7	2019/10/21~2019/10/27	決策理論─展望理論 Decision Theory：Prospect Theory
8	2019/10/28~2019/11/03	判斷理論─SJT Judgment Theory：Social Judgment Theory
9	2019/11/04~2019/11/10	判斷理論─SJT Judgment Theory：Social Judgment Theory
10	2019/11/11~2019/11/17	判斷理論─SJT案例介紹 Judgment Theory：Social Judgment Theory case introduction
11	2019/11/18~2019/11/24	判斷理論─CCP Judgment Theory：Cognitive Conflict Paradigm
12	2019/11/25~2019/12/01	判斷理論─CCT Judgment Theory：Cognitive Continuum Theory
13	2019/12/02~2019/12/08	判斷理論─IIT Judgment Theory：Information Integration Theory
14	2019/12/09~2019/12/15	判斷理論─IIT Judgment Theory：Information Integration Theory
15	2019/12/16~2019/12/22	判斷理論─IIT案例介紹 Judgment Theory：Information Integration Theory case introduction
16	2019/12/23~2019/12/29	判斷理論─雙記憶假說 Judgment Theory：two-memory hypothesis
17	2019/12/30~2020/01/05	判斷理論─IIT的社會平均定理 Judgment Theory：Social Average Theorem
18	2020/01/06~2020/01/12	公共事務管理與判斷決策分析 Analysis of Public Affairs Management and Judgment Decision

課業討論時間 Office hours

時段1 Time period 1:
時間 Time：星期四10:00-12:00
地點 Office/Laboratory：管CM4089
時段2 Time period 2：
時間 Time：星期五10:00-12:00
地點 Office/Laboratory：管4089

系所學生專業能力/全校學生基本素養與核心能力 basic disciplines and core capabilitics of the dcpartment and the university

系所學生專業能力/全校學生基本素養與核心能力
basic disciplines and core capabilities of the department and the university

課堂活動與評量方式
Class activities and evaluation

本課程欲培養之能力與素養 This course enables students to achieve.

紙筆考試或測驗 Test.

課堂討論︵含個案討論︶ Group discussion (case analysis).

個人書面報告、作業、作品、實驗 Indivisual paper report/ assignment/ work or experiment.

群組書面報告、作業、作品、實驗 Group paper report/ assignment/ work or experiment.

個人口頭報告 Indivisual oral presentation.

群組口頭報告 Group oral presentation.

課程規劃之校外參訪及實習 Off-campus visit and intership.

證照/檢定 License.

參與課程規劃之校內外活動及競賽 Participate in off-campus/ on-campus activities and competitions.

課外閱讀 Outside reading.

※系所學生專業能力 Basic disciplines and core capabilities of the department

1.培養對公共事務議題的倫理觀與社會責任實踐 1. Students will be familiar with ethical issues in public affairs and put social responsibility into practice.

2.良好之教學及溝通能力 2. Students will have good oral and written communication skills for teaching.

3.對公共事務高階研究方法之掌握及解決問題能力 3. Students will know how to use advanced methods to do research and solve problems.

4.公共事務管理之專業知識 4. Students will have acquired professional knowledge in public affairs management.

5.對國際與兩岸事務及有關趨勢之認識 5. Students will be familiar with the current state and trends of international and cross-strait affairs.

※全校學生基本素養與核心能力 Basic disciplines and core capabilities of the university

1.表達與溝通能力。 1. Articulation and communication skills

2.探究與批判思考能力。 2. Inquisitive and critical thinking abilities

3.終身學習能力。 3. Lifelong learning

4.倫理與社會責任。 4. Ethnics and social responsibility

5.美感品味。 5. Aesthetic appreciation

6.創造力。 6. Creativity

7.全球視野。 7. Global perspective

8.合作與領導能力。 8. Team work and leadership

9.山海胸襟與自然情懷。 9. Broad-mindedness and the embrace of nature　

本課程與SDGs相關項目：The course relates to SDGs items:

尚未建立SDGS資料

本課程校外實習資訊: This course is relevant to internship:

本課程無註記包含校外實習